After a significant tornado outbreak affected much of the southern Plains yesterday, the attention now turns to Iowa where all threats of severe weather will be possible, including large hail, damaging winds, tornadoes, and flash flooding. A line of showers and thunderstorms are currently ongoing this morning from roughly Kansas City through Vermillion. These are speeding off to the north-northeast at 35 to 40 MPH. At this rate, by 7:00 AM, if they do not dissipate by that point, they would be situated from roughly Brookings, South Dakota to near Des Moines. Some of these storms may be strong-to-severe with large hail the primary threat, however, an organized severe weather threat with these storms is not expected. Conditions are also favorable for some rotating storms, but since these are rather linear, that threat is relatively low. These storms should move out of the area by noon at the latest, and with little to no clouds behind this system, the environment should have plenty of time to heat up and destabilize.

Early morning surface analysis and water vapor imagery is showing the low pressure center between Hays, Kansas and North Platte, Nebraska with an extending warm front along the Iowa-Missouri border and a stationary front through south central Minnesota. This should slowly move northeast through the day with the warm front looking to set up shop for thunderstorm development. Instability will likely begin flooding into the state by afternoon as the previous storms exit the region. An essential “cap” will be in place, which should hold thunderstorm development off until mid afternoon, when an upper-level jet with associated energy pushes into the area. Supercells should begin forming near the warm front by this point with all modes of severe weather possible, including tornadoes. Shear will be decent within the discrete supercells, and with cloud bases expected to be low, any rotation may have a possibility of making it to the ground. Storms will likely move rather slow at 20 to 30 MPH, which presents a variety of potential wild cards with boundaries that could enhance some risks. And, as mentioned, large hail and damaging winds will also be likely.

We are aware that it is, in fact, Mother’s Day, and that many of you are likely planning activities to do outside this morning and afternoon. If anything, you should be okay for the morning. BUT – keep an eye on the forecast and be weather aware! Those with activities planned in the afternoon, especially across northwest Iowa, need to keep a VERY close eye on things and be prepared to take action if necessary.

Stay tuned to the Iowa Weather Network for the latest severe weather information throughout the day and LIVE COVERAGE beginning in the early afternoon!