A significant severe weather outbreak is slated to affect the area as a powerful low pressure center treks northeast into the Central Plains tomorrow. This system is already producing an outbreak across the southern Plains where two enhanced risks exist with a moderate risk over the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex. For Sunday, the SPC has marked an enhanced risk of severe weather over much of the western part of the state, generally west of Highway 63 and north of Highway 34. All modes of severe weather will be possible including large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. Flash flooding will also be a concern late in the day.

Saturday

The severe weather for Saturday will likely be centered over the central and southern Plains where Tornado and Severe Thunderstorm Watches have already been posted. The severe weather risk will be highest over the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex, where the Storm Prediction Center notes that an increased risk for strong tornadoes will be present and upgraded that area to a moderate risk at 3:00 PM. Severe thunderstorms are also expected across Kansas, as our partners at Cirrus Weather note:

Scattered supercells and broken lines of sustained storms with a threat for severe hail and tornadoes is expected to move/develop gradually north-northeast across the Central High Plains through mid-evening. In other words, this second round of storms is expected to pose a more significant risk for tornadoes and severe weather activity through the late afternoon and especially this evening and into the overnight hours.

We do not expect these storms to affect our area too much tonight. These will likely begin to weaken by the time they get to our southwestern area and pose simply a rain risk. It will be important to note, as we saw today in the Central Plains today, that if this activity lasts too long into Sunday morning that this forecast could change very quickly.

Sunday

The bigger story will be coming on Sunday morning when the low pressure center pushes farther into our area with an extending warm front. One thing that has definitely changed since our last forecast is the possibility of morning storms brewing over southwestern Iowa early Sunday morning. A decent low level jet will be running through the area, and with the Gulf’s moisture wide open, it can be expected that storms could begin firing across southwestern Iowa as early as Sunday morning. While not a lot of instability will be present, the low level jet and the environment as a whole will support tornadoes being the primary threat with these storms. Damaging winds will also be a threat. These storms are expected to clear off by mid-morning and lead to peak heating across the state.

After morning convection clears out, the “triple point” is expected to be the hotspot for the second round of severe weather. Temperatures will heat up into the upper 60s to mid 70s across the state with dew points in the upper 60s to low 70s range, showing the abundance of moisture that will be available to tap into. By mid-afternoon, the atmosphere is expected to destabilize with very modest instability. Storms will begin to fire around the 3 PM hour with large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes all possible. The Storm Prediction Center has outlined a enhanced risk of severe weather for most areas west of Highway 63 and north of Highway 34, including Des Moines, Mason City, Sioux City, Sioux Falls, Denison, and adjacent areas. These cells will start out discretely before transitioning to a line – as this happens, the primary threat will turn to damaging winds. It’s important to note that the second round is rather uncertain as the morning storms could easily change the forecast for this period. Things things continue overnight and be out of the state by early Monday morning.

Monday

Severe weather will also be possible on Monday in our far eastern counties. At this time, the threat looks to be relatively low at best and should remain off to the east. An isolated cell may pop-up in these counties, with large hail and damaging winds possible.

Stay tuned to the Iowa Weather Network for the latest information on this system!

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