An active weather pattern is expected to continue this week, hopefully putting an end to the dry conditions we’ve seen over the last several days. A strong low pressure center over Kansas will drift a cold front across the area overnight. Lows are expected to drop to the 40s and 50s tonight with generally no concerns. Winds aloft will veer southwesterly tomorrow bringing moist air in from the Gulf with some instability along with it. The Storm Prediction Center has posted a marginal risk of severe weather for most of those south of Interstate 80 for tomorrow. These concerns will be addressed in a later post. This system will allow some rainfall across southern Iowa with amounts ranging from 0.10″ to 0.40″. Obviously, locally higher amounts with be possible with the stronger storms.

Tuesday will be colder with a northeasterly flow bringing in cold air from the Great Lakes. Highs will be chillier than recent days with upper 40s north to upper 60s south. Models are showing another round of thunderstorms with some decent instability and shear in the far south. Some isolated strong to severe thunderstorms again will be possible in this area.

By Wednesday, a strong area of low pressure will move in from the southwest. This center will produce the best chances for a good rainfall later this week with severe weather chances. A warm front will also kick up in the area Wednesday. This will enhance the severe weather threat. Widespread rainfall will be likely both days.

This should all improve the drought situation, especially on the eastern side of the state. Roughly half of the state is currently listed as “Abnormally Dry” by the National Drought Mitigation Center. These dry conditions have prompted burn bans in eight counties of the state, including Muscatine, Wapello,, Butler, Audubon, Taylor, Plymouth, Lyon, and Osceola counties. Fire weather has also been a concern early this season with multiple Red Flag Warnings issued already.