After the several ups and downs of March with rain, snow, a mixture, warmth, coolness: virtually everything you expect out of Iowa, the severe weather season is finally looking to uncork across the state as a cold front extending from a low pressure center in western Ontario to the southern Plains moves through the area with a dryline triple point setting up in Oklahoma. Temperatures on Wednesday will be much above normal with 70s expected across the southeast quadrant of the state. Moisture will also be plentiful across the area with dew points in the 50s and 60s.

An essential “cap” over the area will be in place early, however this is expected to erode early in the evening. The timing of precipitation will be dependent on when the cold front passes through. Current thinking has this moving into the area by mid-afternoon, and should enhance itself by evening. A linear type system is expected with strong southwesterly winds aloft, which will have the associated damaging wind risk with it. Large hail will also be possible initially with decent shear and instability. The overall unidirectional shear should keep the tornado threat relatively low, however a spinup can not be ruled out on the leading edge of the line. The Storm Prediction Center currently has an elevated risk of severe weather for most areas west of Interstate 35. A marginal risk exists for generally the entire state with the exception of the far east.

 

Stay tuned to the Iowa Weather Network for the latest updates!

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