Short Term
Filing a cold Iowa fall day into the books on this November 6th as temperatures hovered in the 40s and 50s today. There were some spotty rain showers around the area, but those has since cleared out as temperatures begin to fall this evening. Lows tonight are expected to range from the 20s northeast to the 30s southwest with partly cloudy to clear skies. High pressure, centered over the central Plains, dominated the region with generally tranquil weather once again and around average temperatures. Winds tonight may be slightly gusty at 10-15 MPH, but that aside, nothing too major to mention.
Tomorrow’s headline can be simply be listed as: get out and enjoy the warm temperatures before the cold hits Monday like a brick. Tomorrow looks to be a heavenly and mild day for the majority of the state as the high pressure center continues to move east and a warm front slides into the northern Plains. High’s tomorrow will likely be as high as they will get for a while in the upper 40s in the northeast to the 60s in the southwest with partly sunny skies for the entire state.There is a slight chance of rain over the northeastern part of the state, but the majority of those chances should be overnight – see below. Either way, you should get outside and soak in as much warmth as possible, as a big cool-down is in store for the weekend and new work week.
Tomorrow night can be simply described as cold and windy. Low temperatures across the state look to check out to the mid 30s to nearly 40 for the vast majority with partly skies. It will be very windy in the coldest area of northwest Iowa where the low to mid 30s will dominate. Winds in this area may sustain at 20-30 MPH overnight with gusts to 40 MPH or higher. Elsewhere, winds should be slightly less in the 15-20 MPH range with gusts to 30 MPH. There will be a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the northeast, but nothing too much is expected at this time.
Long Term
Saturday looks to be getting back to normal from Friday as temperatures range from the 40s to nearly 50 in most areas. There may be some showers lurking around in the early morning hours, but this should all clear out as a high pressure enters the region. Sunday looks to be a bit warmer in the 40s and 50s, similar to Friday. Monday will have people wanting their winter coats for sure with high temperatures in the 30s and 40s and Monday night low temperatures in the mid to upper teens. Tuesday through Wednesday only gets worse with high temperatures in the 20s and 30s with low temperatures falling to the low teens. Either way, winter is hitting, and you should be prepared for this on Monday.
Now on to the good ole, How much hype is Henry going to put into the forecast for this big winter event on Sunday through Monday? section. Confidence is steadily increasing in a accumulative snowfall event over our northern counties. The American Global Forecast Model (GFS) and the European Model (ECMWF) are both coming a bit more together with what to expect. A zonal northwest flow is expected to begin Sunday night with a low pressure system developing over the Rockies. The question that is being put at play is how far south this low goes. If it goes farther south, even colder temperatures can be expected, and in result, more snow. This is what the GFS is favoring this evening. The European and favored model for this event is keeping this farther north, likely keeping the snow confined to northern Iowa with a cold rain for southern Iowa. Right now, the best forecast we can give this far out is that snow will likely be confined to areas north of U.S. Highway 20. The difficulty of finding out how much snow will fall will have to be measured farther out.