Another day, another severe weather risk, another day of wild cards.

The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma has posted a moderate risk of severe weather for today and tonight across a large part of southern Iowa. Even with a very big and possibly forecast-busting wild card, a very favorable environment for severe weather is looking to be the picture over the Midwest with all modes of severe weather possible.

Storms are ongoing this morning across northwest Iowa. These storms can easily make or break the forecast for today. If cloud cover slows or if these storms grow upscale early, this entire forecast could be called a bust. However, our current forecast thinking from yesterday continues, with storms expected to clear out or move out of the area and allow for plenty of surface heating. Very strong instability, when combined with modest wind shear and ample moisture will lead to a volatile environment for severe weather, with very large hail and tornadoes both possible early before storms transition to a damaging wind threat overnight.

The gunpoint for storms today is up in the air at this point. Storms could really fire anywhere along the Interstate 29 corridor and still have the same threats as mentioned earlier. It is really all going to depend on the location of the boundaries and the synoptic setup across the area. A Moderate Risk of Severe Weather has been posted for southern Iowa, and current thinking has some discrete storms developing across southeast Nebraska before clustering together to make a line with an enhanced damaging wind threat.

The severe weather threat for tomorrow is conditional on how today’s severe weather goes. Models currently have a large mesoscale convective system moving through the state tomorrow evening with the usual large hail and damaging wind threats. A tornado or two will also be possible. We aren’t going to go too in-depth with tomorrow until later today once we have a better handle on our current forecast. Flooding will likely be a big issue with low-lying moist areas as well as points along the Mississippi and Wapsipinicon. We will continue to monitor and provide updates.

Stay tuned to the Iowa Weather Network for the latest information!

Henry Luker | Lead Forecaster