The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma has posted an elevated risk of severe weather over northern Iowa today. A deep trough will move into the High Plains today in conjunction with a low pressure center in Nebraska and Kansas and a front over the Upper Mississippi Valley. A large and strong cap will be in place over the majority of the state today, inhibiting storms from developing for the majority of the day. By late evening, primarily around 10 or 11 pm, a low level jet will come into play near the warm front, giving some lift to the system and therefore allowing thunderstorms to develop.

With modest shear and instability available, large hail and isolated damaging winds and tornadoes will be possible across the northern end of the state where thunderstorms develop. While across central and southern Iowa there will be plentiful instability and ample moisture, there will no ‘trigger’ – a shortwave as meteorologists call it – that will essentially wall off any possible convective development in these areas.

This system will be the X factor for storms on Thursday. Any cloud cover and/or showers and thunderstorms that could inhibit instability could greatly change this forecast, therefore further updates will be needed Thursday morning, when the trough and low pressure center is expected to deepen and continue trekking northeast into Minnesota, therefore swinging the front into central Iowa on Thursday night. Even with uncertainties, we expect thunderstorms to develop in the afternoon through evening hours. Modest to strong shear will be available to produce organized supercellular thunderstorms with large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes all threats.

Stay tuned to the Iowa Weather Network for the latest severe weather information!

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