Iowa Weather Report (Severe Weather Upcoming) May 6th 2014

A MID-WEEK STORM: Another partly to mostly sunny day across the state today with readings a bit warmer than they were on Monday with highs in the middle 60s north to the middle 70s south. A warm front will move across the state tonight into early on Wednesday, which may bring a chance of some showers and thunderstorms. Some of those storms could be strong and may drop some small hail. These storms will move out of the state Wednesday morning leading to a very hot and humid day across the state. Readings on Wednesday will reach the 80s to near 90 across the state outside the far northern counties which will remain in the middle to upper 70s. There is a possibility of a shower or storm cranking in the afternoon and evening hours if the cap breaks. CINH’s levels according to the NAM will be in the moderate range in the central and western counties of the state that may be able to be broken and could lead to some development. It is too early to determine if that will happen at this time. There is a slight risk of severe weather for most of the state on Wednesday. Heading into Thursday, the cold front will move closer to the state with showers and thunderstorms possible again as well. However both the NAM and the GFS shows severe weather parameters a lot lower than on Wednesday, however the atmosphere will not be capped, but there will be less CAPE around as well. Whether or not any storms will become severe or not is still up in the air at this point, but it should become clearer in the next 24 hours or so. There is a slight risk of severe weather for all but the far northwestern counties of the state on Thursday. The system will depart by early on Friday with slowly clearing skies and readings falling back into the 60s to near 70 at that time.

HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND: Mother’s Day weekend still looks a bit unsettled across the state with readings near seasonal levels for this early to middle of May. Saturday looks to start at partly to mostly sunny with a storm system approaching from the west. This will bring some showers and thunderstorms to the area late on Saturday into Mother’s Day on Sunday. It doesn’t look like the typical severe weather set up at this time, but we’ll monitor for any changes.

EXTENSION FORWARD: The GFS shows some unsettled weather continuing into the first part of next week. There is a cool down seen around the middle of the month that could bring readings down into the 50s to lower 60s for highs if this pans out. Temperatures will rebound to near seasonal levels toward the end of the period with the 19th through the 21st looking somewhat active with chances of showers and thunderstorms at that time.