The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma has posted an elevated risk of severe weather over Iowa today. Severe ingredients have came together over the last couple of days that are supportive of severe weather, all associated with a strong low level jet that will move into western Iowa overnight. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop father west and continue broadening in coverage overnight.

Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible with some cells that do develop with the primary threat being large hail. The system should continue moving east overnight and weaken, however heavy rain will remain. This brings in a concern of localized flooding and river flooding, especially across the eastern half of the state where the ground is already saturated from recent rain.

Sunday is looking to be the more active day in terms of severe weather. Thunderstorms from Saturday will likely remain in the morning but remain fairly weak and should be out of the state by midday. Instability will then shift into southwest Iowa thanks to a warm front moving into the area. A key ingredient will be available in bulk, shear, which will be sufficient to create organized supercell thunderstorms.

In combination with a continued ample supply of moisture, a full suite of threats will be possible with these storms, including large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes, especially in the far southwest. Flash flooding will again, be a concern as the ground will be very saturated from previous days rain. Thunderstorms will likely begin to fire in the late afternoon and continue developing during the evening. Coverage and intensity of storms will increase and will continue into the overnight and morning.

Stay tuned to the Iowa Weather Network for the latest severe weather information!

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