Iowa Weather Report November 16th 2013 – Iowa Weather Network Archives

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STORMY WEEKEND: Showers and Thunderstorms will be possible today into Sunday across the area. Some of the storms could be strong to severe. The Storm Prediction Center has central and eastern Iowa in a slight risk of severe weather for mainly tonight. There will be two rounds of storms, the first round is likely not to have much if any severe weather with it, although the chance is not zero at this point. The better chances for any severe weather will come later tonight into Sunday morning as a second low pressure center will move into the state from the southwest. Thunderstorms are expected to develop during the evening and overnight hours and race to the northeast at that time. Hail and damaging winds will be the main threats from any of the storms, but an isolated brief tornado cannot be ruled out. Rainfall will also be very spotty with some areas possibly getting as much as an inch of rain but that will be dependent on whether a locale gets more than one storm during the period. This is still somewhat a fluid situation at this time, so make sure to stay with the blog along with the FB page for any updates regarding this weather situation. As the system moves off to the northeast later on Sunday, colder air will filter down and some of the precipitation may mix with some snow before ending with the best chances of that occurring in the northeastern counties of the state. Highs today will be in the 50s and 60s with highs Sunday ranging from the 40s northwest to the lower 60s south and east.

THE WEEK AHEAD: Monday will see cooler conditions around with highs mainly in the 40s with a few places in northeast Iowa possibly staying in the upper 30s. The winds turn back to the south on Tuesday which should boost readings back well into the 40s and perhaps lower 50s in the southern counties of the state. Another system will bring some rain shower activity Wednesday night into Thursday with colder air arriving thereafter. Another storm will move to our south Friday into next Saturday that may scrape the southern counties of the state with some rain and or snow at that time depending on the air temperature. With high pressure trying to nose in, some of the precipitation seen on the model runs may not get to the surface as any more than a few flurries or sprinkles but we’ll continue to watch in the coming days.

GOBBLING THROUGH THE FORECAST: The Thanksgiving week forecast looks to be somewhat active with some storm systems during the time period in question. To start off the GFS shows fairly calm and quiet Monday into Tuesday with clouds increasing late in the day Tuesday with the approach of the next system on Wednesday (the big travel day). With enough cold air around, the precipitation on Wednesday will likely be in the form of some snow with perhaps a few inches possible, but determining snowfall accumulations more than 10 days out is questionable at this point. The snow may linger into Thanksgiving morning with the rest of the day seeing dry conditions albeit not fully clearing. Friday the winds turn back southerly and another system approaches from the west. This may bring some interesting weather the weekend after Thanksgiving with some rain and perhaps a rumble of thunder. But given what the same model showed 12 hours prior, we don’t have much confidence in this solution at this time.