Prepared by Henry Luker, Interim Meteorologist-in-Charge
Assisted by Cody Kooi, Associate Forecaster & Jeff Wilcox

UPDATE (1:07 PM CDT): The Storm Prediction Center has added an enhanced risk/30% for large hail and damaging winds during the evening hours tonight. North Central Iowa has also be included in the isolated/5% tornado threat area during the evening hours tonight. Storms that developed this morning have since diminished as of 1:00pm this afternoon and redevelopment should be starting later on. Large hail, damaging winds, an isolated tornado, and flash flooding are all possible with this system. Stay tuned to the Iowa Weather Network for the latest updates and later statements/possible warnings.

PREV DISCUSION (05 10:09 PM CDT): Severe weather is continuing to be on track since I last wrote. The Storm Prediction Center in Norman has extended the elevated risk of severe weather to include the entire state tonight. A cold front is expected to track eastward into the Upper Mississippi Valley in the late afternoon, extending into the Central Plains. There are many variables that are currently in question regarding the boundary layer across Iowa and how good the quality of it will be. However, if the boundary can hold up to it’s standards, shear and instability in the atmosphere will easily be able of creating large hail, some very large events possible, damaging winds, especially if the line can bow out, and an isolated tornado. Urban and small stream flooding will also be possible.

So here’s how it is currently planned to go. Storms are expected to fire in the early to mid afternoon across Nebraska and South Dakota and move east into a more warmer and unstable environment. Several cells should form and eventually form a bowing line, presenting a damaging wind threat across the state. Storms should continue moving eastward and weaken towards the evening hours.

Stay tuned to the Iowa Weather Network for the latest information!