All of Iowa

Iowa Forecast Discussion July 11th 2013

FEW CHANGES: Quiet weather looks to continue for a few days but a change in the latest model run may bring a chance of showers and storms to the state this weekend. There was a chance before but it was very isolated and mainly across the northern tier of the state. Now the GFS is showing a upper level disturbance moving westward from the Ohio Valley westward into the Mississippi River Valley by the weekend. This along with a system that will be north of us could bring some isolated showers and storms throughout the whole state this weekend. There could be some areas that could get by with no rain while others may get some. HPC doesn’t seem to think much rain will fall but this was done before this latest run so we’ll have to wait and see what will become of this upper level disturbance on this run. If it doesn’t form, the ridge will develop and temperatures will rise into the upper 80s and lower 90s by late this weekend into early next week. With this new development, this will keep the heat away for a bit as the ridge will be to the east and west but not overhead.

FARTHER ALONG INTO JULY: The ridge according to this latest model run never really develops over the state as the main westerlies are close enough to keep readings close to seasonal levels through the end of next week into the weekend. There looks to be some shower and thunderstorm chances with the westerlies close enough to the state, but at the end of the period, the ridge really looks to take shape across the Northern Rockies and Interior Mountain West, specifically over Idaho. Around here this would bring a trough through the Great Lakes which may bring more cool conditions to our area while the west may bake in extreme heat.