…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS…

…MIDWEST…

PRIMARY CORRIDOR OF MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY/NWRN ONTARIO SATURDAY AHEAD OF
DEAMPLIFYING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH THAT SHOULD ULTIMATELY BE ABSORBED
INTO THE DEEPER ERN CANADIAN UPPER TROUGH. THIS FEATURE SHOULD
PROVE MOSTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR EWD SURGE TO COLD FRONT THAT IS
EXPECTED TO EXTEND ACROSS NWRN WI…SWWD INTO SERN MN/CNTRL IA AT
18Z. WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY STRUGGLE TO WARM APPRECIABLY ACROSS
THIS REGION…SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY AND MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR ARE
EXPECTED TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS
TEMPERATURES APPROACH 80F. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INITIATE
RATHER EARLY IN THE PERIOD…POSSIBLY BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST ALONG SRN FRINGE OF STRONGER WLY
FLOW WITHIN THE BASE OF AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH. PRIMARY
SEVERE THREATS ARE HAIL/WIND.

ANOTHER FEATURE THAT MAY ULTIMATELY ENCOURAGE MORE SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS A WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE
SRN PLAINS. ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL SPEED MAX IS FORECAST TO LIFT
NNEWD INTO ERN KS BY 18Z…INTENSIFYING TO NEAR 60KT BY 16/00Z OVER
NRN MO. EARLY MORNING CONVECTION WILL LIKELY INFLUENCE CONVECTIVE
INITIATION LATER IN THE DAY AS ONGOING MCS ALONG THE IA/MO BORDER
SHOULD LEAVE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT MAY RETARD DAYTIME HEATING.
LATEST THINKING IS GREATEST SFC HEATING WILL OCCUR ACROSS KS INTO
NWRN MO. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WARMING/DESTABILIZING AIRMASS OVER NERN
KS/WRN MO. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN SPREAD/DEVELOP ENEWD IN
CONJUNCTION WITH EJECTING SHORT-WAVE. SHEAR PROFILES FAVOR DEEP
ROTATING STORMS AND ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE…INCLUDING A
FEW TORNADOES. HAIL/WIND MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY AS IT
SPREADS ACROSS NRN MO INTO SERN IA/WCNTRL IL.