[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BuPlAeNjkJo&w=480&h=360]

COLD TO BEGIN WARM TO END: A storm system will be moving out of the state today taking with it some rain and a bit of wintry mix early on today. Skies will be slow to clear from west to east but temperatures won’t matter regardless of sun or clouds today. Highs will be stuck in the 40s to near 50, about 15-20° below seasonal averages for this time of year. It will be quite brisk as well. Another disturbance moves in Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning that may squeeze out a shower or flurry but shouldn’t amount to a whole lot. Temperatures then begin a quick rise back to seasonal levels in the 60s by the end of the week and above average by Sunday into Monday of next week.

NEXT RAIN CHANCE: Outside that weak disturbance Wednesday afternoon and night and perhaps a shower in far SE Iowa Friday, the next system with a widespread chance of rain holds out until Sunday and Monday. This will be with a cold front coming in from the west and northwest. Severe weather could be possible but it’s much too early to determine that at this time.

ALL THE WAY INTO MAY: GFS is showing much drier conditions in the latter half of the forecast. This could be a good and a bad sign. Good, that this will bring the farmers out into the fields to begin planting the crops for the season. Bad, because this could be the start of another long dry spell that could inevitably begin another drought again. Remember at this time last year, the topsoil moisture was about the same as it is currently (This year is just a slight bit wetter). A few weeks of dry weather and warm weather (which the GFS is also suggesting) could spell a sign of things to come. Let’s hope this trend does NOT continue.

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