/UPDATE/…3:30PM

The SPC has removed the 15% hail risk for all of Iowa due to clouds and precipitation being mucked over the area. The slight risk has also been cut for the majority of Northeastern Iowa and has been confined to Southeastern and East Central Iowa. However, a low to moderate amount of CAPE (convective available potential energy) exists over the Iowa… and this has the potential to offset the clouds around the area, which doesn’t allow updrafts to form (creating hail.) At this time, we do not think enough CAPE is available to do this, but we will be keeping an eye on it. A 5% risk remains for this area.

Nonetheless… strong sheer exists (45-55 MPH) across Iowa. The storms are already moving quite fast across the state… and if they happen to get into these sectors with strong sheer, damaging winds will be a large concern. This is the reason the SPC has kept the Slight Risk over Iowa… and strong to severe storms will be possible as we get into the evening hours.

/ORIGINAL/…12:57PM
The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma has posted a Slight Risk of Severe Weather for much of Central and Eastern Iowa during the day today. A strong mid-level jet stream is expected to move into the Upper Mississippi Valley today from the Rockies, while a surface low moves into Eastern Nebraska/Western Iowa/Southern Minnesota.  (See Geographic Regions) While no pre-frontal moisture developed this morning, forecast is on track for storms to develop later this evening into the overnight hours.

Any thunderstorms that may develop within the surface low, along with strong forcing in the atmosphere, will have the potential to develop into supercells and have the threat of large hail, damaging winds, and a few isolated tornadoes. Any convection that does develop will likely turn into a small squall line of thunderstorms.

Stay tuned to the Iowa Weather Network for the latest updates.