The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma has posted a Slight Risk of Severe Weather for much of Southern Iowa on the day Tuesday. An upper level ridge is forecast to move Northeastward while a Upper Level Low moves across the region and Mid-Level jet moves into the Middle Mississippi Valley. Farther down at the surface, a cold front will move Southeast as a warm front takes station at the Iowa/Illinois/Missouri border.

Along the warm front, dew points will be in the upper 50’s to mid 60’s creating a moderately unstable air mass. As the day goes on, the atmosphere should destabilize around noon and without much capping storms should begin developing around noon. Later in the afternoon…convective development will increase and the severe weather threat should really begin to fire up. The ingredients are coming together for all modes of severe weather possible with damaging winds the primary threat if this system turns into a squall line. If low-level flow amplifies during the evening like forecasted, a few tornadoes will have the power to develop.

Stay tuned to the Iowa Weather Network for the latest on this system.