…SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK NUMBER 2…

THIS SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK IS FOR THE QUAD CITIES
HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA…WHICH INCLUDES PORTIONS OF EASTERN
IOWA…NORTHWESTERN AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS…AND EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI. THIS AREA INCLUDES THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND
ITS TRIBUTARIES FROM BELOW GUTTENBERG LD10 IOWA TO BELOW GREGORY
LANDING MISSOURI. THE OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TIME PERIOD FROM MID MARCH
THROUGH EARLY JUNE.

THIS HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK IS A STATISTICAL LOOK AT THE RISK FOR
FLOODING DUE TO SNOWMELT AND NORMAL SPRING THAWING CONDITIONS.
THESE VALUES DO NOT REFLECT THE FLOODING POTENTIAL DUE TO ICE JAMS.
THE OUTLOOK ASSUMES NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION WILL
OCCUR DURING THE OUTLOOK TIME PERIOD. IF TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION ARE NOT NEAR NORMAL…THEN THE ACTUAL RISK OF FLOODING
MAY DIFFER FROM WHAT THE OUTLOOK CURRENTLY INDICATES.

…THE SPRING SNOWMELT FLOOD POTENTIAL IS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE AREA TRIBUTARY RIVERS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AND WESTERN
ILLINOIS AND FAR NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI…

…THE SPRING SNOWMELT FLOOD POTENTIAL IS NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL FOR
THE AREA TRIBUTARY RIVERS ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AS WELL AS THE
MAINSTEM MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM NEAR DUBUQUE DOWNSTREAM TO GREGORY
LANDING…

…WHAT HAS CHANGED SINCE SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK
NUMBER 1…

THE RECENT ACTIVE PRECIPITATION REGIME HAS INCREASED THE SNOWPACK
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER BASIN OVER THE LAST TWO WEEKS.
THE INCREASED SNOWPACK AND ASSOCIATED LIQUID WATER EQUIVALENT HAS
RESULTED IN A SLIGHT INCREASE TO THE FLOOD RISK PROBABILITIES FROM
THE PREVIOUS SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK ISSUED IN LATE FEBRUARY.

THE FACTORS TO WATCH IN THE COMING WEEKS WILL BE ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION WITH THE ONGOING ACTIVE WEATHER REGIME…ALONG WITH
THE FROST DEPTH THAT COULD INTERFERE WITH THE ABSORPTION OF SNOWMELT
AND RAINFALL. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAM FLOODING
DURING THE MELT PERIOD.
…CURRENT CONDITIONS AS OF MARCH 7 2013…

.SNOW DEPTH AND LIQUID WATER EQUIVALENT…THERE IS AN ABOVE NORMAL
SNOWPACK ACROSS THE REGION…AS A RESULT OF THE RECENT ACTIVE
WEATHER REGIME. SNOW DEPTHS FROM NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI THROUGH
EASTERN IOWA…WESTERN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS ARE ABOUT 4 TO 10
INCHES ABOVE NORMAL. THE ASSOCIATED LIQUID WATER EQUIVALENT IS ONE
HALF INCH TO TWO INCHES.

THE SNOW DEPTH WILL DECREASE AS TEMPERATURES WARM THE REMAINDER OF
THIS WEEK AND MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS FORECAST FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

.SOIL MOISTURE…SOIL MOISTURE DEFICITS AND ONGOING LONG TERM
DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS IOWA…NORTHWEST ILLINOIS AND
NORTHEAST MISSOURI. SOIL MOISTURE IS CLOSER TO NORMAL ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL INTO WESTERN ILLINOIS. PRECIPITATION THIS WINTER SEASON HAS
BEEN ABOVE NORMAL…WHICH HAS RESULTED IN SOME EAST TO WEST
IMPROVEMENT TO THE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.

.FROST DEPTH…FREQUENT CYCLES OF FREEZING AND THAWING EARLY THIS
WINTER HAVE RESULTED IN A DEEP FROST ACROSS THE REGION. THE FROST
DEPTHS ARE UNUSUALLY DEEP FURTHER NORTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
IOWA…MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. THE FROZEN SOILS WILL BE A FACTOR TO
WATCH WITH REGARD TO IMPACTING SNOWMELT AND RAINFALL RUNOFF.

.STREAM LEVELS…STREAM LEVELS ARE AVERAGING BELOW NORMAL ACROSS
EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI…WHILE STREAM LEVELS ACROSS
NORTHERN AND WESTERN ILLINOIS ARE AVERAGING NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL.

…WEATHER OUTLOOK…

THROUGH MID MARCH…

THERE ARE INCREASED CHANCES FOR TEMPERATURES TO TREND BELOW NORMAL
ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. THERE ARE ALSO INDICATIONS OF A TENDENCY
TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH MARCH.

FOR MARCH THROUGH MAY…

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER INDICATES INCREASED CHANCES FOR ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MIDWEST FOR THE MARCH THROUGH MAY
TIME PERIOD. THERE ARE ALSO INCREASED CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA.

…ADDITIONAL INFORMATION…

THIS IS THE LAST OF TWO SCHEDULED SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES
OUTLOOKS FOR THE SEASON. UPDATES MAY BE ISSUED DEPENDING ON CHANGES
IN WEATHER AND HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE THE ROUTINE
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS WILL RESUME NEAR THE END OF EACH
MONTH THROUGHOUT THE YEAR.

YOU CAN FIND THE LATEST HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOKS…WEATHER AND
RIVER INFORMATION ON OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/QUADCITIES .