[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qaXKAZEJKuI&w=480&h=360]
CALM AND COLD BEFORE STORM: The days leading up to the storm at the end of the week will be quite chilly but partly to mostly sunny across the state. Highs today will be in the teens and 20s. Some places near the Iowa Minnesota border may struggle to get out of the single digits. Wind Chills this morning will be well below zero in many areas thus a wind chill advisory is a good call for the northern two tiers of counties through the morning hours. Clouds will begin to increase across the state late in the day Wednesday ahead of the storm that we’ve been talking about for several days now.
THE STORM: The latest model run has shown the storm moving in a bit slower than previous runs. Most of the state except the southwestern counties may not see any snow falling until after sunrise Thursday morning with most of the state getting in on the action by the early to middle afternoon hours. Models have also been trending a bit less on the snow as of late by about an inch or two especially in the western counties. The low pressure center is still projected to move along the Oklahoma Kansas border and then lift northeastward toward western Illinois by Friday morning. As it lifts out, the storm will begin to fill or weaken with a new low forming down in the Delta Region in Mississippi. This may cut off the moisture supply to the storm with heavy rains expected down in the Deep South. There will still be some snow falling especially in the eastern 2/3rds of the state where it will be the heaviest by this time, but the amounts will be less than those in the western counties are expected to receive. Winter Storm Watches have already been issued in SW Iowa and more are likely to come (perhaps before you see this post) The snow will begin to taper off Friday morning in western Iowa. Midday Friday in Central Iowa and Friday Evening in the east. Most of the heaviest accumulations are likely to occur Thursday afternoon and evening before dry air gets entrained into the storm from the south and west.
SUNDAY SNOW: The GFS had a interesting system on the heels of the one coming Thursday into Friday but the 6, 12 and 18z runs didn’t look particularly interesting, but this run has brought it back with a low pressure center moving quickly NNE from near Enid OK Sunday afternoon to Fort Dodge by Monday Morning. The model suggests some snow with this system as well, perhaps accumulating snow of a few inches. Of course this storm is likely going to be effected by the late week storm with regards to moisture, dry air aloft etc. We’ll keep an eye on this and may have a better outlook on that storm once we get Thursday and Friday’s storm out of the way.
STAYING SEASONALLY COOL: Leaving the month of February and heading into March, the pattern looks to stay at or below average regarding temperatures. The pattern shows some weak systems that may bring some light snow or rain but not much to measure. This being in the land of voo-doo, this will undoubtedly change several times over the next few days.