[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cdfODHQXndc&w=640&h=480]
TALKING SNOW: A weak disturbance today will move across the northern counties of the state into Minnesota. This may bring a few flurries or light snow showers to that area. Little if any accumulation with that is expected at this time. The storm that has everyone’s attention right now is the one coming in late Wednesday through the day on Thursday. Models are starting to come into better agreement with the track and possible snowfall estimates with this system. However, the storm is making landfall on the west coast this morning and there are still some uncertainties at this time. Right now it looks like the heaviest snow will fall in and fairly close to the middle of the current Winter Storm Watch area outlined on the Watch Warning Map. Amounts at this time (this may change) look to be between 6-12″ in this area. Lighter amounts to the southeast will be due to some mix or rain at the beginning of the system. The lighter amounts to the northwest will be due to lack of moisture in that area. The middle of the heavy snow looks to be from near Creston in the southwest through the Des Moines metro to Marshalltown to Waterloo to Prairie Du Chien WI and Stevens Point WI. There may be enough warm air aloft and at the surface to start the precipitation as rain or a mix in the eastern and southeastern counties. Some of this could be in the form of freezing rain. It doesn’t look like as of now that this is going to be a major problem as the amounts of any ice will be minimal at best, but any ice on untreated roads is a serious a snow any day, especially in the hilly terrain of northeastern and eastern Iowa. Winds will become a major factor on Thursday as the winds switch around to the north and northwest. These winds may be at 20-30mph sustained with gusts approaching 40. This may create near blizzard conditions in some areas. A blizzard watch may become necessary if the forecast winds get up to blizzard criteria. In any case it is a good time to get an Emergency Auto Kit prepared in case you are going to be traveling Wednesday and Thursday. If you are going to be driving make sure to take your time. If it means getting late to where you’re going, it’s better than not getting there at all. There is likely going to be many airport cancellations as well at Des Moines International, the Eastern Iowa Airport, and Waterloo Muni and Dubuque Regional. Make sure if you have a flight scheduled either out of these airports or to these airport to call ahead.
AFTERWARD: Temperatures will turn sharply colder after the passage of this system. Highs will be in the lower and middle 20s and lows in the single digits. We may even see some below zero readings if we can get a clear sky and calm winds around. A slow moderating trend will lead us to the Christmas holiday weekend, but another storm could be in the offing that day and thereafter as well with more snow. As of now this storm does not look as serious as the one that is coming through tomorrow into Thursday but this system didn’t look too good either until a few days ago. We’ll have to keep watch on that in coming days. It looks to remain active even into the new year with readings staying near seasonal levels at this time.