The Storm Prediction Center has issued a slight risk of severe weather for Wednesday and Wednesday night for a portion of Iowa. This would include NE, NC, central, WC, SC and southwestern parts of the state. The main risks for any storms that may form would be large hail and damaging straight line winds. There is an isolated tornado that is possible as well if the storms can remain discrete. There are still some questions regarding this event with the possibility of a capping inversion over the state that may keep storms from developing. If this weakens and the storms can develop then severe will be possible along the cold front that will NE/SW through the state Wednesday afternoon into the evening.

What SPC is saying: HEATING/DESTABILIZATION AND INCREASINGLY WEAK INHIBITION IS EXPECTED NEAR/JUST AHEAD OF THE NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED COLD FRONT AND DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BENEATH A RELATIVELY STEEP PLUME OF MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES…LOWER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO AS MUCH AS 1500-2500 J/KG MLCAPE BY PEAK HEATING. HOWEVER…THE LIKELIHOOD/EXTENT OF SURFACE BASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH PEAK HEATING REMAINS UNCERTAIN…ESPECIALLY GIVEN INITIALLY MODEST BROAD SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND THE POSSIBILITY OF RESIDUAL CAPPING ALOFT VIA THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. HOWEVER…ANY DEVELOPMENT THAT DOES OCCUR/MATURE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING COULD POSE A SURFACE BASED SEVERE RISK GIVEN AMPLE VERTICAL SHEAR/INSTABILITY…WITH SUPERCELLS AT LEAST CONDITIONALLY POSSIBLE. THIS COULD INCLUDE SEVERE HAIL/WIND AND SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL ACROSS PORTIONS OF IA/SOUTHERN MN INTO WESTERN WI.