The Storm Prediction Center has issued Mesoscale Discussion #839, concerning the Severe Potential for tonight. They have put the chance of a Watch being issued at 95%, which is Very Likely.’

Storms are expected to develop along the intersection of a Cold Front and a Dry Line, which produces very good Severe Parameters, with 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE, the main parameter we look at. A cap is currently in place but is eroding with the storms moving in. Bulk Shear values are around the 40-50 KT area, and are expected to increase later tonight.

Stay tuned as we await any new updates from the SPC. A live chat will be issued if this does, in fact, happen.