[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fm98cu_p6b4?hl=en&fs=1&w=425&h=349]

WARM DAYS: A few warm days to end the month of January with readings into the 40s across the northern counties, with 50s to around 60 across the south. This warm spell will last into Tuesday but no further as a frontal system with little moisture moves in at that time. Some light rain showers or even a few sprinkles will be possible. Amounts are likely to be under a few hundredths with many places getting a trace or nothing at all.

SLIGHTLY SEASONAL: Readings will drop back to the 30s to lower 40s across the state, which is closer to seasonal averages, but still are 5-10° above them. It will remain dry most of the week with a disturbance that may graze the southern counties with some precipitation late in the week.

COOLING OFF: This model run shows temperatures are likely to return to more seasonal readings further into February but won’t be going below that. This run shows NO arctic outbreaks as is expected given the positive NAO. It’s also looking rather dry with little chance of precip through the Valentine’s Day holiday (which ends the run). However wild swings have been seen past 10 days with regards to precip and we’ll likely see that on further runs for sometime to come.