3:30PM Severe Weather Update – Iowa Weather Network Archives

Cross Posted from the Iowa’s Severe Weather Center WeatherBlog at iaswc.org!

In my last post, I said the Slight Risk expansion for more of Iowa was unlikely. Well, I guess it got expanded this morning! The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma expanded the Slight Risk of Severe Weather area to include more of Iowa this morning (See graphic to the Left).

The trough over the Central Plains is beginning to Strengthen today bringing with it and Higher chance of Thunderstorm Development. High Temperatures and Dew Point values this afternoon do seem to be taking a big part in the Thunderstorm Development later this afternoon.

The higher the Dew Points go this afternoon, the more unstable the atmosphere will be this afternoon, which will help with the Initiation of Thunderstorms this afternoon.

Thunderstorms will begin to develop in the Dakotas and Nebraska, and will begin to trek Eastward as we move into the Evening Hours. The combination of the Modest Wind Shear values and Strong Instability is suggesting that Damaging Winds and Large Hail will be the main threats tonight (see below graphics). As always, We can not rule out the Tornado and Flooding threats.

We will continue to keep you updated with any new developments, Proposed Watches/New Watches, and the latest information. If the threat grows Widespread tonight, We will Launch the IASWC Severe Weather Live Chat.

UPDATE: The Storm Prediction Center has posted Mesoscale Discussion for Central Iowa. This Mesoscale Discussion is about the Threat Rising, as well as a possible Watch this afternoon. Find details on the watch here!