[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VWvMv4bUgIE?hl=en&fs=1&w=425&h=349]

SEVERE BOOM OR BUST: Today will be an interesting day on whether or not thunderstorms will develop and become severe. There is a slight risk of severe weather for today and tonight across most of the state north of US Hwy 34. The main threats will be from large hail and damaging winds, although the better chances reside to the north over Minnesota and the eastern Dakotas. It will all depend on whether or not the cap breaks. There is expected to be a moderate capping layer (CINH) across the state, with stronger values closer to the Iowa Missouri border (thus the reason of no risk area in that location) CAPE values will certainly be high enough with 2000-3500 J/kg across the state. There will be little if any shear across the state (thus the reasoning for no tornado risk) at 0-1km. The lifted index across the state is expected to be around -7 to -11 which means the atmosphere will be very unstable. If thunderstorms fire, they will likely be severe, but most likely they will be very isolated as well given the cap. The same can be said for Monday’s chances as well. There is a slight risk of severe weather for most of the state again. The main risks will be from large hail and damaging winds. The STP (Significant Tornado Parameter), SCP (SuperCell Parameter) and the SIGSVR (Significant Severe) numbers (from the 00z NAM see video) are the highest in quite awhile across the state, we’ll see what happens.

RETURN TO SENDER: Iowa will try to get rid of the heat that been around during the weekend, but it will be returning for the next weekend with another 594mb ridge much closer to the state (centered just south of the state in Missouri) which would shut off the rain spicket and bring in Triple H (Hazy, Hot and Humid) conditions once more. This will also occur again in two weeks time (although that’s in voo-doo) with the ridge slightly further to the west over Colorado.

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