[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l-0noWhtXeM&hl=en&fs=1]

SEVERE DAYS: There is a moderate risk of severe weather for today and tonight across the southwestern counties of the state. There is a slight risk including the entire state of Iowa. On Monday, there is a moderate risk of severe weather across a large section of the state, the south and southeastern sections of the state are in a slight risk for Monday. All modes of severe weather will be possible with this system, including VERY large hail, VERY strong winds, and tornadoes. The latest QPF charts don’t show copious amounts of rain from this system, however, we can’t underestimate the possibility of heavy amounts of rain in areas that don’t need it. So flash flooding is possible especially in the southern counties. The storm will linger into Tuesday where there is a possible chance of severe weather that day as well (The Day 3 outlook wasn’t out yet as of this writing), however the state could get dry slotted if enough drier air comes into the system from the south and southwest. The storm will be weakening as it slowly moves to the east on Wednesday and Thursday, with lingering chances of showers into mid-week. Temperatures will drop as well by mid-week next week, with readings back to at or just below average for this time of year.

HOLIDAY AHEAD: The end of the model run comes up on Independence Day Weekend. As of now, it looks rather hot with slight chances of afternoon showers and thunderstorms around. It’s still too early to determine if this will hold, but the ridge has been constant on runs over the last few days, so we’ll see.

MO RIVER FLOODING: The ongoing flooding on the Missouri River continues, and doesn’t look to let up anytime soon. It could be well into July or even August before the river falls below flood stage. It will depend on any rainfall that comes during the next 3-6 weeks. Until then at least moderate to major flooding will continue through the next week.