[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CYK5mNgcu8w&hl=en&fs=1]

DRY VS WET: There will be plenty of dry time this weekend across the state. But MCS’s are so hard to forecast, that any storm could develop and congeal with other storms to form one and move across the state during the morning hours, but the conditions have to be right for such an event. The last two days haven’t had the right conditions. Last night as an example, a few storms got going across eastern Nebraska and Western Iowa, but fizzled out at sunset, while an MCS to the north and south kept going through the night. Another possible chance of such an event occurs later today and tonight, but it all depends on the conditions. If one happens, it will likely last through the morning hours of Sunday before skies begin to clear once more. The next round of storms wouldn’t take place until Sunday evening at the earliest. In the meantime, during the dry time, temepratures will be in the 80s to around 90 across the state with dewpoints in the 60s.

EARLY WEEK SYSTEM: Still hold some concern about the system that will roll in Tuesday. A substantial trough axis will be moving through the state and given the amount of moisture, the wind shear etc. There could be a significant outbreak of severe weather across the state. Again as with MCS development, conditions have to be right for storms to fire, so we’ll only go as far to say there’s a chance of severe weather, but not go into further detail until later this weekend.

INDEPENDENCE DAY HEAT?: The model outlook extends right up to the 4th of July Holiday weekend and the latest run shows a 594mb heat bubble over the south central sections of the country. With that possibility, temperatures here could easily be in the 90s with isolated chances at a afternoon thunderstorm. Of course things can change in an instant with the very next run.