[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cQAeJF9-coM&hl=en&fs=1]

SEVERE WEATHER: The Storm Prediction Center has a slight risk of severe weather for today and tonight across the eastern counties of the state. This includes Waterloo, Dubuque, Cedar Rapids, Iowa City, The Quad Cities and Burlington. The main threats will be from large hail and damaging winds, although a tornado can’t be ruled out. Given that there was a risk yesterday and nothing developed, the same could happen yet again if the cap holds in place like on Sunday evening. However, the cap should break during the late afternoon or evening hours allowing thunderstorm development to take place. CAPE values will be in the 3-4,000 J/kg range across the outlooked area this evening into the overnight hours.

UPPER LOW: The first piece of energy with this system will move into Canada Tuesday allowing for a VERY warm day with highs likely in the 80s and lower 90s with breezy southerly and southwesterly winds. The second piece will round the trough the move in from the SW Wednesday into Thursday, however it will not be as quick to depart. The storm will be cutoff from the main jet stream and sit around the Great Lakes for the next week before finally lifting out at mid-week next week. We’ll have to see if this pans out, given that’s this upper level feature has been on the GFS for the last week now consistently.