[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CMEvjlV8XE0&hl=en&fs=1]

GOOD FRIDAY STORM: The next storm will be knocking on the door of the state later today, with precipitation breaking out across western Iowa as early as this afternoon with the eastern counties holding out until tonight or early Friday morning. A Warm front currently stalled over Arkansas, Mississippi and Alabama will retreat northward with a low pressure moving NE from Kansas into SE Iowa. Most of the state will remain on the colder side once more so rain will be the main story, however a small portion of SE Iowa could be a few stronger thunderstorms. CAPE Values will be in the 1000-1500 J/kg across the far SE (Burlington, Keokuk, Fort Madison), however better CAPE values remain well to the south across OK and MO. This is likely where some thunderstorms could become severe. The SPC has a slight risk of severe weather for the far SE for Friday into Friday night. The main threat will likely be from large hail, with damaging winds being a secondary threat.

AFTER EASTER: The second storm will move into the state late on Easter with another round of showers and isolated thunderstorms at that time. It’s too early to determine severe weather chances, however the low pressure system will be further to the NW this time around (moving through SW into NC Iowa Monday), which may increase the liklihood of severe weather in the state. Precipitation will exit the state early on Tuesday, however some backwash clouds may linger into Wednesday with possible sprinkles from them across the NE.

FLOODING: The Mississippi River has crested from Bellevue northward and is expected to crest at Fulton and Camanche later today and Le Claire and Rock Island tonight or early Friday morning. Any rainfall will prolong flooding concerns in these areas and on other rivers that are currently in flood across the state. The latest Mississippi River Update was yesterday afternoon with another one coming tonight.