Regional View
A Winter Storm is set to impact much of the Upper Midwest this week as a low pressure system moves northeast from Kansas into Iowa, then Wisconsin. This looks to set the heaviest snow of at least 6 inches in Northern and Western Iowa, Southeastern Minnesota, Central Wisconsin and the Eastern Upper Peninsula of Michigan. Rain and more sleet will be found south, and minor accumulations will be found north of that area. The good news is there wont be much cold air to be found behind it, in fact temperatures will be above freezing after the passing of the storm.
Local View
Note: This storm has been extremely tricky to forecast for, it has going over 50 miles swings in the potential track over the past week, It is showing more stability but I don’t want to rule out the treat of a change in the track at last minute. Which would significantly effect totals. A slight trend north would bring more snow, and a trend south, much less, either way right now it appears the heaviest snow and the highest totals will remain mostly south east of the my blog coverage area.
Tomorrow ahead of the storm will actually seasonal temperatures in the middle to upper 30s with cloudy skies. It will actually feel warm to many people. There could be some light snow or drizzle through out parts of the day, but the heavier snow should not develop until Tuesday Night. Tuesday Night winds will increase out of the Northeast, and light snow should develop, quickly becoming moderate, and could become heavy in far southeastern parts of the area, in places like Menomonie or Elk Mound. some blowing and drifting will be possible as winds gust to 30MPH. Light snow will likely last much of the first half on Wednesday before tapering, but Temperatures will not cool off like originally thought, instead it will stay in the low 30s on Wednesday which is still a bit cool for this time of year. Thursday will likely bring us a much better day, with increasing sunshine and highs in the mid to upper 30s, and lows in the 20s.
Snowfall Accumulations
With the current track of this storm, it looks likely that the highest accumulations will be in far southern parts of the area in or near southern Dunn county. 3-5″ looks like the the bet so far for communities such as Menomonie Downsville and Elk Mound. Farther north and west 2-3″ will be more common for cities such as Rice Lake, Amery, New Richmond and Hudson. Northwest of here even less 1-3″ for Northwest Polk and Burnett counties, It is very possible there will be a sharp cut off in the highest amounts some places in Burnett County may see nothing but a few flurries.
Tuesday, Cloudy, light snow or drizzle at times with highs in the upper 30s Tuesday Night, turning breezy, with light snow developing quickly becoming moderate to possibly heavy at times in southern areas. lows in the low 20s
Wednesday, Windy and cooler with light to moderate snow and blowing and drifting snow. Snow will taper in the afternoon, highs in the low 30s Total accumulations 3-5″ Southeastern areas to 1-3″ Central and northern areas. Wednesday Night, cloudy and breezy with lows in the low 20s to upper 10s
Thursday, Warmer with clearing skies and highs in the middle to upper 30s Thursday Night, Partly cloudy with lows in the lower 20s
Looking ahead
This week the long range forecasts are actually looking a bit better with temperatures, This model says we may even be flirting with our first March 40.F temp by Friday, but then on Saturday a system wants to trys to develop which could give us of appears to be rain turning to snow, cooler air follows the system. Then by Monday the 14th through Wednesday the 16th, the models are picking up on what could be our first more significant spring-like warm ups, I don’t want to get anyone excited but a stretch of 40s would surely be possible, at the same time towards the later end of the warm up on the 15th a system gets it’s act together, but in time for us to be on the warm side, Rain changing to snow would be likely with this turn out. A brief cool down and drier conditions follow on the 17th. Then on the 18th warmer air moves back in, followed by colder air and snow chances once again by the 19th. The 20th the first day of Calender Spring the models show us being dry and cool as a large snowstorm passes just to the south. At the very end of the model run it shows warmth building in the Western U.S while we remain a bit cool. All in all this long range is looking a bit better for anyone looking towards a more Spring-Like pattern although this one still shows us quite active through the 20th