[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xOzILarmisY&hl=en&fs=1]

TODAY: The latest runs of both the NAM and GFS have been coming in a bit drier with this system that will move just to the south and southeast of the state through the overnight hours of Sunday night into Monday morning. Most of the heaviest precipitation will be falling just to the south and southeast of the state (where the heaviest band on the QPF chart shows). The southeastern sections of the state may get upwards of a quarter to third of an inch of liquid precipitation before it wraps up early Monday morning.

As for when the precipitation will start, it looks like sometime in the early afternoon hours across the southern counties of the state, where it will be in the form of rain with possibly a mix of freezing rain if it begins any sooner than that. It should stay all rain as the precipitation moves northward (the southeastern half has the best chance of any precip with this system). By evening as colder air will filter in behind the storm system, the rain will switchover to some light snow or a few flurries, however as was mentioned yesterday, the heaviest band of precipitation will have moved out of the state by this point, so accumulating snow won’t be very likely, possibly a dusting to an inch possible.

Alot of the moisture with this system will be in the thunderstorms that will fire in the mid-south, where a severe weather outbreak is likely tonight, with large hail, damaging winds and isolated tornadoes possible there.

NEXT STORM: The next event will move in Thursday, with another round of wintry precipitation. This will be another event with a rain snow mix possible. It’s too early to determine where the rain snow line will set up with this system, but it’s likely there could be some accumulating snow as well, with this lasting through next weekend at the latest.

This runs also shows a few plunges of arctic air diving in from Canada, but this is out of the 7 day forecast (known as Voo-doo), and could change on the very next run. This does show that winter isn’t over by any means and it can and likely will still get quite cold over the state for the next several months or so.