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SPC Outlook Statement Below

A NW-SE ORIENTED BAND OF ELEVATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT 12Z FROM PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN NEB INTO NRN KS WITHIN EXIT REGION OF NOCTURNAL LLJ. THE PRESENCE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES/MODERATE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY INDICATE A THREAT OF SEVERE HAIL WITH THESE STORMS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. IN THE WAKE OF THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT…DEW POINTS IN THE 60S COUPLED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND DAYTIME HEATING ARE EXPECTED TO YIELD A MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE MID MO VALLEY WITH AFTERNOON MLCAPE OF 2500-3500 J/KG.

LATEST MESOSCALE AND TSTM-RESOLVING MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE THAT SOME REMNANT OF THE MORNING ELEVATED TSTMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY…PERHAPS EVEN REINTENSIFY BY AFTERNOON WITHIN THE DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR OVER ERN NEB/WRN IA INTO NERN KS/NRN MO. ADDITIONAL TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY AFTERNOON ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM PARTS OF SERN SD INTO SRN MN AND SWWD INTO CNTRL NEB. OTHER MORE ISOLATED STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW COMPOSITE BOUNDARY PRESENT ACROSS SRN NEB/NRN KS…AS WELL AS IN THE UPSLOPE REGIME OF NERN CO.

THE STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR /I.E. 40-50 KT/ IS EXPECTED TO RESIDE GENERALLY TO THE N OF NEB/KS AND IA/MO BORDERS. AND WHILE THE DISTRIBUTION OF WARM SECTOR MOISTURE/LAPSE RATES MAY TEND TO BE MODULATED BY THE EARLY DAY STORMS…SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS WHERE THE STRONGER INSTABILITY COINCIDES WITH THE MODERATELY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR. UPSCALE GROWTH INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S WILL LIKELY OCCUR BY LATE EVENING WITH AN ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL.