All of Iowa, Severe Weather

Severe Weather Outbreak Friday (PM Update)

SPC Severe Weather Outlook for Friday (PM Update)

There is now a slight risk of severe weather for Friday and Friday night in Iowa south of a line from Westfield (20 miles north of Sioux City) to Clinton. This is yet another northward adjustment from this morning (a trend). A Moderate risk has been placed down in Arklatex region into western Mississippi where a large tornado outbreak is possible. Here is what SPC says in their outlook regarding possible severe weather in and around Iowa for Friday.

…MID-MO VALLEY…
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS FRIDAY AS A CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SETS UP FROM ERN KS NWWD ACROSS SRN NEB WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S F.
MODEL FORECASTS DEVELOP MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM CNTRL NEB SEWD ACROSS ERN KS AND WRN MO. THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY TO INITIATE ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHERE FORECASTS SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGESTING SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. VERY LARGE HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH THE MORE DOMINANT SUPERCELLS ACROSS ERN NEB…FAR NE KS AND NW MO AS THE EXIT REGION OF A MID-LEVEL JET MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH. THIS COMBINED WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG AND 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 7.0 AND 7.5 C/KM MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL. THIS THREAT FOR 2 INCH AND GREATER SIZE HAIL SHOULD BE FOCUSED WITH THE MORE DOMINANT SUPERCELLS ACROSS ERN NEB…FAR NE KS AND NW MO AS THE EXIT REGION OF A MID-LEVEL JET MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.