All of Iowa, Severe Weather

Waiting for the Storms to Fire

From the Area Forecast Discussion (NWS Des Moines) a few minutes ago.

SFC LOW PRESSURE NOW CENTERED NEAR RED OAK WITH VERY DYNAMIC FLOW ONGOING AROUND IT. STILL MONITORING SEVERE WX POTENTIAL FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AND MORE PARTICULARLY THE TORNADIC THREAT. A SMALL TORNADIC SWEET SPOT IS EXPECTED NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT WHERE BEST POTENTIAL FOR BACKING FLOW EXISTS AND EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES OF 200-300 M2/S2. FARTHER SOUTH…STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD LIMIT TORNADIC ACTIVITY HOWEVER VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER 70 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. GIVEN SUCH DYNAMIC FLOW…ANY TORNADO THAT DOES DEVELOP COULD BE QUITE STRONG NEAR THE WARM FRONT. EXPECT THE WARM FRONT TO REGRESS BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH SUPERCELLS POSSIBLY CROSSING THE BOUNDARY AS THIS OCCURS AND MOVING INTO INCREASED SRH VALUES WHICH WOULD ENHANCE LOW LEVEL ROTATION. BUNKERS RIGHT MOVING SUPERCELL MOVEMENT OF 45 TO 55 KT MEANS THEY WILL BE MOVING QUITE QUICKLY.