AREAS AFFECTED…PARTS OF ERN KS/WRN AND NRN MO/WRN AND CNTRL IA

CONCERNING…SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 021328Z – 021500Z

IT IS NOT CERTAIN THAT A WW WILL BE NEEDED…AT LEAST IN THE NEAR TERM…BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.

STRONGER MID/UPPER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE IMPULSE LIFTING OUT OF THE BASE OF APPROACHING LARGER SCALE TROUGH WILL OVERSPREAD PORTIONS OF THE MID/LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY BETWEEN NOW AND 15-18Z. VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING WITH THIS FEATURE…BUT IT IS NOT CLEAR THAT FORCING WILL BE ABLE TO GENERATE SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION TO SUPPORT A CONTINUING SEVERE THREAT AS IT DEVELOPS ACROSS AND AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN/LEADING EDGE OF A NARROW PRE-FRONTAL TONGUE OF WEAK GULF MOISTURE RETURN.